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Notes from the global warming front.
15 August 2007The blogger who found and broke the NASA data error is apparently the victim of a Denial of Service attack on his webserver and has had to move his webserver. Heretic! Repent, You shall Burn!
A comment from his website:
The thing I curious about is how have the historical temps of the other 98% of the world been collected, collated, and tinkered with. I have always been under the impression that the US was the exemplar when it came to the the studies of AGW and climate science. We already are getting a peak at the reliability of Chinese data, but how well do the Russians do when it comes to accuracy? Plus, the Euro-Asian continent was in almost constant turmoil during the first half of the last century, diverting resources away from many scientific fields. I would expect that, in many countries throughout the world, there was less than stellar measurement and record keeping of climate and temps within the time-frame spanning WW1 and WW2.
He has been interviewed world wide, but not much in the US. The DrudgeReport link has been the most US side publicity.
A new theory of global warming has been proposed by a Professor, Dr. Anastasios Tsonis. The theory is based on a branch of mathematics known as Sychronized Chaos. The math predicts the degree of coupling to increase over time, causing the solution to “bifurcate,” or split. Then, the synchronization vanishes. The result is a climate shift.
their model says the known cycles of the Earth’s oceans — the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino (Southern Oscillation) and the North Pacific Oscillation — all tend to try to synchronize with each other.
Eventually the cycles begin to sync up again, causing a repeating pattern of warming and cooling, along with sudden changes in the frequency and strength of El Nino events.
Better yet, their theory has predictive power. The model predicts past shifts in the year 1913 (explaining the strong warming of the 20s and 30s), 1942 (resolving the post-WW2 cooling trend) and 1978 (covering our current warming). The model predicts another shift to occur around the year 2033. Most shocking of all is their prediction for the year 2100 to be slightly cooler than present day, despite the assumption of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. Eye-popping indeed.
Is carbon-dioxide really so ineffective at warming? A new study by Belgium’s Royal Meteorological Institute seems to think so. Its conclusion is that, while CO2 does have some effect, that “it can never play the decisive role attributed to it” in global warming, and that its effects have been grossly overstated.
More Heretics!
In other news:
Australian scientists have discovered a giant underwater current that is one of the last missing links of a system that connects the world’s oceans and helps govern global climate.
New research shows that a current sweeping past Australia’s southern island of Tasmania toward the South Atlantic is a previously undetected part of the world climate system’s engine-room, said scientist Ken Ridgway.
The Southern Ocean, which swirls around Antarctica, has been identified in recent years as the main lung of global climate, absorbing a third of all carbon dioxide taken in by the world’s oceans.
Seems the “model” will have to be updated. Yes folks, models are a continuing work in progress. You construct a model based on best evidence, compare the predictions against observation and then figure what went wrong, refine your model and do it all over again.
That is how science works, rarely do scientists say, “the debate is over”.
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